The rage for wanting to conclude is one of the most deadly and most fruitless manias to befall humanity. Each religion and each philosophy has pretended to have God to itself, to measure the infinite, and to know the recipe for happiness. What arrogance and what nonsense! I see, to the contrary, that the greatest geniuses and the greatest works have never concluded.
Gustave Flaubert, Correspondence (Paris, 1929), vol V, 111.
Drawing conclusions is hard-wired into our brains. Yet, we know now that our ability to draw reliable conclusions based on evidence is seriously flawed (psychologists.) By knowing these thinking flaws we can choose to manipulate people or we can choose to present the truth, without bias. Sometimes the best we can do is guess, but let's be clear that it is a guess.
Friday, October 12, 2007
Belief and Lincoln
"The probability that we may fall in the struggle ought not to deter us from the support of a cause we believe to be just; it shall not deter me." The Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln edited by Roy P. Basler, Volume I, "Speech on the Sub-Treasury" (in the Illinois House of Representatives, December 26, 1839), p. 178.
Part of Lincoln's greatness is his consistent appeal to that which we hold dear of above all else - truth and justice.
Part of Lincoln's greatness is his consistent appeal to that which we hold dear of above all else - truth and justice.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Science
Here is the response I wrote to Frank about global warming/science. A nice summary of how science works.
Frank - here is how science works. You have a phenomenon that is not completely understood - e.g. lung cancer. One day a lung surgeon notices that many of his patients smoke 2 pack a day. (Doctors used to be heavy smokers, too.) He thinks - maybe cigarette smoking causes cancer. He's not sure - afterall, not everyone who smokes gets cancer. He publishes his finding. Other doctors and researchers perform independent analyses and publish their results in peer-reviewed journals. There is some conflicting evidence. Cigarette companies join the fray, examine the evidence and find every little discrepancy and say there is no "scientific proof" - this phenomenon is not completely understand (which is true.) A commission of scientists is put together to evaluate the different findings. They conclude that the weight of evidence clearly shows that smoking causes lung cancer - even though they don't completely understand the link between smoking and lung cancer - and not everyone who smokes gets lung cancer. That's what happened. There was no collusion, no conspiracy, no liberal agenda - just science.
Frank - here is how science works. You have a phenomenon that is not completely understood - e.g. lung cancer. One day a lung surgeon notices that many of his patients smoke 2 pack a day. (Doctors used to be heavy smokers, too.) He thinks - maybe cigarette smoking causes cancer. He's not sure - afterall, not everyone who smokes gets cancer. He publishes his finding. Other doctors and researchers perform independent analyses and publish their results in peer-reviewed journals. There is some conflicting evidence. Cigarette companies join the fray, examine the evidence and find every little discrepancy and say there is no "scientific proof" - this phenomenon is not completely understand (which is true.) A commission of scientists is put together to evaluate the different findings. They conclude that the weight of evidence clearly shows that smoking causes lung cancer - even though they don't completely understand the link between smoking and lung cancer - and not everyone who smokes gets lung cancer. That's what happened. There was no collusion, no conspiracy, no liberal agenda - just science.
Fate
"I claim not to have controlled events, but confess plainly that events have controlled me." The Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln edited by Roy P. Basler, Volume VII, "Letter to Albert G. Hodges" (April 4, 1864), p. 281.
How true? We fool ourselves into thinking that we can control events, when at best we can influence them on the side.
How true? We fool ourselves into thinking that we can control events, when at best we can influence them on the side.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Metaphors and Assigning Credit
I am reading a fascinating book entitled "Metaphors We Live By" by George Lakhoff(linguist) and Mark Johnson(philosophy.) The basic thesis is that metaphors are not just language constructs, but are an organizing framework for the way we think. Thus, metaphors in our language shape our perceptions and actions without us ever realizing it. Anyway - very interesting. I think this is may be related to statistics, just not sure how yet!
Giving credit for those who have come before
I really like the forward in that it puts the work in the historical context. We all stand on the shoulders of the great who have gone before us. It is good to remember that, and not get discouraged when we don't feel we are being creative or innovative enough. There are very few really "new" discoveries. Nothing happens in a vacumn. That book on innovation also points that out. ET also made that point when trying to present information - don't create a new format - just steal from the best! It puts a new light on what is valuable and what is a contribution. (The Nobel prize lady using genetics and corn may be more of an exception.)
Here is part of the forward:
"Ideas don't come out of thin air. The general ideas of this book represent a synthesis of various intellectual traditions and show the influence of our teachers, colleagues, students, and friends. In addition, many specific ideas have come from discussions with literally hundreds of people. We cannot adequately acknowledge all of the traditions and people to whom we are indebted. All we can do is to list some of them and hope that the rest will know who they are and that we appreciate them. The following are among the sources of our general ideas." They go on to list two pages of sources of intellectual traditions, and authors. Very impressive! Why not start out with who you are indebted to?
In a related issue of where ideas come from is the book "How Invention Begins" by John H. Lienhard. He writes in his forward:
"Beginnings of the important things in our lives ... are quiet and invisible - not like the band-accompanied launching of a ship or the firing of a rocket into space. The ship might have begun with a student sitting on the rocks above the sea, hypnotized by the movement of a boat in the cove below or reading stories of the sea. Perhaps the Saturn rocket can be traced back to a child who watched Fourth of July fireworks, or read about Buck Rogers and Flash Gordon, and then asked, "Why not me?" Invention has fermented alone inside their heads, but it has also been driven by the voices of their communities.
We eventually realize that an elusive a priori essence hovers over all invention; we sense its presence, but it can be fiendishly hard to trace. Too much has always gone on before we get around to assigning priority to the creation of any new thing. Invention is a powerful part of the human psyche. But its texture and form are quite different from the cartoon images that we often use to represent it. We all want to foster the creative improvement of our world, and that alone is reason to spend this time sorting out the meaning of invention.
... human invention is ever-present and (that) is always accompanied by a communal synergy of ideas. ... we need to do more than just make that bland assertion. We also need to connect, viscerally with its seeming contradiction - the coexistence of individual creativity and communal reinforcement.
The fabric of causality becomes terribly complex in the case of invention. That is why we do better if we begin with a seemingly illogical acceptance that invention is the emergence of a collective idea at the same time it is an expression of one person's genius."
Giving credit, realizing the source of inspiration are important, but don't detract from the contribution that each of us makes in creating something that is new or a new take on a seemingly settled piece of "science."
Giving credit for those who have come before
I really like the forward in that it puts the work in the historical context. We all stand on the shoulders of the great who have gone before us. It is good to remember that, and not get discouraged when we don't feel we are being creative or innovative enough. There are very few really "new" discoveries. Nothing happens in a vacumn. That book on innovation also points that out. ET also made that point when trying to present information - don't create a new format - just steal from the best! It puts a new light on what is valuable and what is a contribution. (The Nobel prize lady using genetics and corn may be more of an exception.)
Here is part of the forward:
"Ideas don't come out of thin air. The general ideas of this book represent a synthesis of various intellectual traditions and show the influence of our teachers, colleagues, students, and friends. In addition, many specific ideas have come from discussions with literally hundreds of people. We cannot adequately acknowledge all of the traditions and people to whom we are indebted. All we can do is to list some of them and hope that the rest will know who they are and that we appreciate them. The following are among the sources of our general ideas." They go on to list two pages of sources of intellectual traditions, and authors. Very impressive! Why not start out with who you are indebted to?
In a related issue of where ideas come from is the book "How Invention Begins" by John H. Lienhard. He writes in his forward:
"Beginnings of the important things in our lives ... are quiet and invisible - not like the band-accompanied launching of a ship or the firing of a rocket into space. The ship might have begun with a student sitting on the rocks above the sea, hypnotized by the movement of a boat in the cove below or reading stories of the sea. Perhaps the Saturn rocket can be traced back to a child who watched Fourth of July fireworks, or read about Buck Rogers and Flash Gordon, and then asked, "Why not me?" Invention has fermented alone inside their heads, but it has also been driven by the voices of their communities.
We eventually realize that an elusive a priori essence hovers over all invention; we sense its presence, but it can be fiendishly hard to trace. Too much has always gone on before we get around to assigning priority to the creation of any new thing. Invention is a powerful part of the human psyche. But its texture and form are quite different from the cartoon images that we often use to represent it. We all want to foster the creative improvement of our world, and that alone is reason to spend this time sorting out the meaning of invention.
... human invention is ever-present and (that) is always accompanied by a communal synergy of ideas. ... we need to do more than just make that bland assertion. We also need to connect, viscerally with its seeming contradiction - the coexistence of individual creativity and communal reinforcement.
The fabric of causality becomes terribly complex in the case of invention. That is why we do better if we begin with a seemingly illogical acceptance that invention is the emergence of a collective idea at the same time it is an expression of one person's genius."
Giving credit, realizing the source of inspiration are important, but don't detract from the contribution that each of us makes in creating something that is new or a new take on a seemingly settled piece of "science."
Monday, October 8, 2007
Framing: Lincoln, The Civil War, and Iraq
In Russo and Shoemakers Decision Traps, they talk about the importance of frames and decision-making. Frames are simplifications and organizations that allow us to structure a complex world. Frames keep complexity within reason so that our minds can manage. No one can make a rational decision without framing. Buyer beware: any frame leaves us with a partial view of the problem or issue.
Decision Trap number 2:
Frame Blindness - Setting out to solve the wrong problem because you have created a mental framework for your decision, with little thought, that cause you to overlook the best options or lose sight of important objectives.
I was always struck as to Lincoln's insistence that the war was about Union and not necessarily slavery. This is an excellent example of how framing was used in a very successful manner. Without that frame I do not believe that Lincoln could have held true to his principles and persevered in such an arduous and hororific task. There is a famous passage about how Lincoln will use what ever means is necessary to hold the Union together, no matter its effect on slavery. Here is that passage that is an excerpt from a letter to Horace Greeley:
Decision Trap number 2:
Frame Blindness - Setting out to solve the wrong problem because you have created a mental framework for your decision, with little thought, that cause you to overlook the best options or lose sight of important objectives.
I was always struck as to Lincoln's insistence that the war was about Union and not necessarily slavery. This is an excellent example of how framing was used in a very successful manner. Without that frame I do not believe that Lincoln could have held true to his principles and persevered in such an arduous and hororific task. There is a famous passage about how Lincoln will use what ever means is necessary to hold the Union together, no matter its effect on slavery. Here is that passage that is an excerpt from a letter to Horace Greeley:
"My paramount object in this struggle is to save the
Lincoln has identified his paramount objective as saving the union. Thus, every decision, strategy and action flows from that frame. There were numerous ways in which Lincoln could have framed the conflict, in fact there was quite a bit of pressure to frame the conflict as anti-slavery, yet he chose to frame it as saving the Union - a more palatable and constitutionally defensible rationale. He did say in his Second Inaugural:
"One-eighth of the whole population were colored slaves, not distributed generally over the Union, but localized in the southern part of it. These slaves constituted a peculiar and powerful interest. All knew that this interest was somehow the cause of the war."
Thus, saving the union was his paramount objective, but the reason he had to save the union was because slavery had divided the country.Now, in retrospect, what looks like genius, might be interpreted in light of correctly framing the issue in a way that was clear, understandable and actionable. Without that crystal clear frame, the subsequent decisions would have lacked purpose and wisdom and very possibly success.
The current state of affairs in Iraq, suffers from a lack of clarity in framing. The Iraq Was has been variously framed as stopping WMDs, getting the terrorists of 911, regime change, bringing democracy to the middle east, and its current rationale that we can't afford to leave because it would become a terrorist haven, even though it appears that it wasn't one to start with. Consequently, we have seen differing policies to match the various frames. It is no wonder that there has not been a "successful" conclusion to this conflict in the four plus years of fighting.
Friday, October 5, 2007
Justice Robert Jackson
Quotes from Justice Jackson
"Those who begin coercive elimination of dissent soon find themselves
exterminating dissenters. Compulsory unification of opinion achieves
only the unanimity of the graveyard." -Opinion in Barnette
"We must make clear to the Germans that the wrong for which their
fallen leaders are on trial is not that they lost the war, but that
they started it. And we must not allow ourselves to be drawn into a
trial of the causes of the war, for our position is that no grievances
or policies will justify resort to aggressive war. It is utterly
renounced and condemned as an instrument of policy."
"The wrongs which we seek to condemn and punish have been so
calculated, so malignant, and so devastating, that civilization cannot
tolerate their being ignored, because it cannot survive their being
repeated. That four great nations, flushed with victory and stung with
injury stay the hand of vengeance and voluntarily submit their captive
enemies to the judgment of the law is one of the most significant
tributes that Power has ever paid to Reason." - Excerpt from Opening
Statement at the Nuremberg Trials, (1945)
Justice Jackson's commitment to the rule of law and dissent look downright prescient in today's world. Even though there were horrific crimes committed by the Nazis, we relied on the rule of law to try and punish the perpetrators. There would seem to be a parallel to todays actions regarding torture and the open-ended confinement of terrorist suspects in Cuba.
"Those who begin coercive elimination of dissent soon find themselves
exterminating dissenters. Compulsory unification of opinion achieves
only the unanimity of the graveyard." -Opinion in Barnette
"We must make clear to the Germans that the wrong for which their
fallen leaders are on trial is not that they lost the war, but that
they started it. And we must not allow ourselves to be drawn into a
trial of the causes of the war, for our position is that no grievances
or policies will justify resort to aggressive war. It is utterly
renounced and condemned as an instrument of policy."
"The wrongs which we seek to condemn and punish have been so
calculated, so malignant, and so devastating, that civilization cannot
tolerate their being ignored, because it cannot survive their being
repeated. That four great nations, flushed with victory and stung with
injury stay the hand of vengeance and voluntarily submit their captive
enemies to the judgment of the law is one of the most significant
tributes that Power has ever paid to Reason." - Excerpt from Opening
Statement at the Nuremberg Trials, (1945)
Justice Jackson's commitment to the rule of law and dissent look downright prescient in today's world. Even though there were horrific crimes committed by the Nazis, we relied on the rule of law to try and punish the perpetrators. There would seem to be a parallel to todays actions regarding torture and the open-ended confinement of terrorist suspects in Cuba.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)